Ni iki twakwitega ko kizava mu nama ya EAC na SADC i Dar es Salaam?

Mu gihe amahanga akomeje gusaba ko intambara ihagarara, inkuru nyamukuru izaba itegerejwe ku wa gatandatu nimugoroba nyuma y’inama y’abakuru b’ibihugu by’akarere bigize Umuryango wa Afurika y’Iburasirazuba (EAC) hamwe n’ibigize Umuryango wa Afurika y’Amajyepfo (SADC). Perezida Cyril Ramaphosa wa Afurika y’Epfo ari mu bemeje kuzitabira iyi nama, nk’uko byemejwe na Perezida wa Kenya.

Niba Perezida Paul Kagame w’u Rwanda na Felix Tshisekedi wa DR Congo bahuriye i Dar es Salaam mu biganiro, bizaba ari intambwe ikomeye kuko baherukaga guhurira mu biganiro nk’ibi mu 2022.

Ibikubiye mu biganiro:

Tina Salama, umuvugizi wa Perezida Felix Tshisekedi, yatangaje ko Tshisekedi azitabira iyi nama, ariko ntiyemeje niba azayitabira imbona nkubone cyangwa azayitabira akoresheje ikoranabuhanga. Yongeyeho ko uruhande rwa DR Congo ruzajya muri iyo nama gusaba ibihano bikomeye ku Rwanda, gukura ku butaka bwabo ingabo n’ibindi bihugu bitatumiwe, no kumvikana ku gahenge.

Ku ruhande rw’u Rwanda, Minisitiri w’ububanyi n’amahanga, Olivier Nduhungirehe, yabwiye France-24 ko Perezida Kagame yiteze ko iyi nama izaganirirwamo ku gahenge hagati ya leta ya DR Congo n’umutwe wa M23, no guhagarika imirwano.

ONU na DR Congo bivuga ko u Rwanda ruri inyuma ya M23, mu gihe u Rwanda ruhakana ibyo birego gusa na rwo rukavuga ko RDC itera inkunga mutwe wa FDLR urimo abasize bakoze Jenoside yakorewe Abatutsi mu Rwanda mu 1994.

Ese inama izatanga igisubizo kirambye?

Bitewe n’uko ibiganiro byabanje byagaragaje ibibazo byo kutumvikana, hari impungenge ko iyi nama na yo ishobora kurangira nta mwanzuro ufatika ugezweho. Mu bihe byashize, amasezerano y’agahenge yabayeho, ariko ntiyamaze kabiri kuko impande zombi zakomeje gushinjanya kuyica.

Onesphore Sematumba, umusesenguzi wo mu kigo International Crisis Group, yavuze ko ikibazo cy’ibiganiro bishingiye ku kuba impande zihanganye zitajya zemera uruhare rwazo mu ntambara. Yagize ati: “U Rwanda kugeza n’ubu ntirwemera ko rufite abasirikare muri DR Congo, kandi n’uruhande rwa Kinshasa ntirwemera ko ikibazo cy’intambara gifitanye isano n’imiyoborere n’amakimbirane y’imbere mu gihugu.”

SADC na EAC ntibibona ibintu kimwe

Mu gukemura amakimbirane muri DR Congo, umuryango wa SADC wafashe umwanzuro wo gushyigikira leta ya Kinshasa wohereza ingabo mu burasirazuba bwa Congo. SADC ishinja u Rwanda gushyigikira M23 kandi ikemeza ko uyu mutwe wishe amasezerano y’agahenge ya Nyakanga 2024 yari yumvikanweho i Luanda.

Ku rundi ruhande, EAC ntiyashinje u Rwanda mu nama y’icyumweru gishize, ahubwo yasabye Kinshasa kuganira n’imitwe yose yitwaje intwaro, harimo na M23. Iyi ngingo ni imwe mu zizaganirwaho i Dar es Salaam.

Impamvu igitutu cy’amahanga gishobora kugira uruhare rukomeye

Uko ibintu byifashe muri iki gihe hari itandukaniro n’uko byari byifashe mu 2012, ubwo M23 yafataga umujyi wa Goma ikawuvamo nyuma y’iminsi 10.

Icyo gihe igitutu cy’amahanga, by’umwihariko icy’ubutegetsi bwa Barack Obama, ku butegetsi bw’u Rwanda na M23, byagize uruhare rutaziguye mu gutuma M23 iva i Goma, biha n’imbaraga ingabo za MONUSCO na SADC kuyikurikirana no kuyinesha igahungira mu Rwanda no muri Uganda.

Abategetsi ba DR Congo muri iyi minsi bashishikajwe no gusabira u Rwanda ibihano mpuzamahanga. Ibi bibayeho nta kabuza ko byashyira igitutu gikomeye ku Rwanda, rwakira nibura kimwe cya gatatu cy’inkunga ku ngengo y’imari yarwo.

Gusa, icyemeranywaho muri rusange n’ubwo kitaragerwaho, ni uko umuti w’ikibazo cya DR Congo wabonekera mu bushake bwa politike bwa nyabwo bw’abategetsi bo mu karere, n’aba Congo, by’umwihariko, biciye mu nzira z’ibiganiro by’amahoro, nk’uko biheruka kuvugwa na Uhuru Kenyatta – wahoze ari perezida wa Kenya – usanzwe na we ari umuhuza muri iki kibazo.

Hari amahirwe ko i Dar es Salaam hashobora kwemezwa amasezerano yo guhagarika imirwano. Ariko, kuba impande zose zakwemera ayo masezerano no kuyubahiriza ni ikibazo kigoye. Icyemezo cyafatwa muri iyi nama gishobora guha icyerekezo gishya iyi ntambara cyangwa kikaba icyemezo kidatanga igisubizo kirambye.

Byongeye, umwanzuro uzafatwa kuri iyi ngingo hagati ya SADC na EAC ushobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku cyerekezo cy’amahoro mu burasirazuba bwa Congo no mu karere k’ibiyaga bigari.